Monday July 02, 2018


In a long-awaited development, Eurozone finance ministers agreed on a debt relief package for Greece. The agreement marked an historic moment for the country as it prepares to exit its third bailout programme in August this year. It comes after the implementation of more than 450 policy actions under the European Stability Mechanism programme alone, and ends more than eight years of international bailouts, which involved more than €240bn of loans disbursed by European official creditors. The debt relief package includes a 10-year deferral on interest and amortisation payments for the €96.6bn of European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) loans under the second bailout programme, a large €15bn loan tranche (of which €5.5bn will be used to cover debt servicing needs) and €9.5bn to bring the total cash buffer to €24.1bn (covers sovereign funding needs for 22 months).  Also included is the receipt of profits accrued on bonds held by both the European Central Bank and other euro area central banks and the abolition of the step-up interest rate margin, as part of the enhanced post-programme surveillance that will include monitoring by the International Monetary Fund. Greece will receive semi-annual payments starting in 2018 until June 2022 as part of additional reforms. In our view the 10-year extension on both interest and amortisation payments for the EFSF loans is a step towards securing medium-term debt sustainability. At the same time, Eurogroup commitments to review the need for additional debt relief at the end of the EFSF grace period in 2032 (thereby ensuring that gross financing needs stay between 15-20% of GDP) also sends a strong message to the investment community. Furthermore, it potentially allows the IMF to provide a favourable review on medium-term debt relief under its on-going and eagerly anticipated Article IV Consultation with Greece. The market, having digested the complexities of the agreement, should look more kindly upon Greece. The large cash buffer covering funding needs (potentially even to the end of 2020), combined with a framework for ensuring sound fiscal policy over the medium-term, will in our view provide additional confidence to investors. Moreover, it seems apparent that potential political risks related to the electoral cycle are mitigated by official creditors’ fiscal and conditional monitoring. This article originally appeared on
Thursday June 21, 2018


LXM continued their sponsorship of Old Foresters Football Club 1st X1 in 2017-18 and the team had a triumphant season. After a 20 year trophy hiatus, the team topped the Arthurian League Premier Division standings. The team also defeated Worcester College Old Boys in the Amateur Football Association Challenge Cup Final held in Twickenham on 24th March. LXM Group’s Chief Operating Officer, Piers Young, commented: “The team can be more than proud of what was undoubtedly their most successful season in decades. Especially pleasing is the abundance of younger players within the squad which certainly bodes well for the future of Old Foresters FC. LXM’s sponsorship has allowed us to earmark key resources for the squad’s development.” The Old Foresters Football Club is one of the oldest football clubs in the world, with a history that stretches back even before its formal constitution in 1876 and the founding of The Football Association in 1863. The club reached the quarter final of the F.A. Cup in 1882 and the last sixteen a further three times. The Old Foresters have won the prestigious "old boys cup", The Arthur Dunn Cup three times, the Essex Cup three times and the London Senior Cup twice. Eight Old Foresters footballers have played international football.
Images: David Bauckham, Centre Circle Publishing (
Monday June 11, 2018


Emerging market equities continue on a downwards trajectory since peaking back in January. Having corrected 12% since its apex, the MSCI EM Index is now down 2.8% YTD and we estimate that the correction process has only just passed the half way mark, with a further 10% downside to be reached between mid-August and early December. Potential causes of this continued decline are: firstly, the ongoing strengthening of the US dollar; secondly, Fed rate hikes coupled with a US economy break away from the rest of the developed economies (which are showing signs of stalling); and thirdly, the prospect that many emerging and frontier market countries, such as Nigeria, may be forced to raise interests rates in order to defend their own currencies. The biggest losers in the last month have been Brazil and Ghana. Year to date the biggest losses have been seen in The Philippines, Bangladesh and Turkey, with the latter scheduled to hold elections this summer. Countries with markets still firmly in the green include Ukraine (+46% ytd), Tunisia, Kazakhstan and Slovenia. In frontier markets, focus is on MTN Ghana’s IPO, slated to be the largest in Ghanaian history. This will be followed closely with the listing of MTN’s Nigerian unit. In the income market, issuers are having to come to terms with the 65bps uptick in emerging and frontier market US dollar bond rates over the last six weeks, making raising money a hard endeavour unless they re-price the deal. This article originially appeared on
Thursday June 07, 2018


In the 2018 Extel Survey the investment community rated LXM Group as the leading firm for Greek Equities Sales. Matthew Mavridoglou, Chief Executive Officer, commented: “We are grateful to all our clients who voted for us, and are thrilled to receive this recognition at a point when attention is again on the economies of Southern Europe, where much of our business is focused.” “The team really deserves this ranking. They are brilliant in their field – real specialist and experts – delivering fantastic results for clients. I’m extremely proud of them and the whole team.” “We continue to see Southern Europe, and Greece in particular, as a growing opportunity for investors and in-depth local insight is vital to navigate that market.” In results published yesterday, LXM outranked the competition for Greek Equity sales. The Group’s Head of Southern Europe, Petros Mylonas, secured first place in the individual rankings, with Kimon Roussos, Head of Sales, Louis Nicolopoulos, Senior Investment Adviser and Christoforos Papanicolaou, Senior Adviser, in 5th, 6th and 11th place respectively. LXM Group’s Southern Europe team offers bespoke analysis on Greek macroeconomic, political and corporate themes across equity and other asset classes. In addition, the Group offers investment banking services across the Greek market, including advice on mergers and acquisitions, disposals, capital raisings and corporate solutions. The team will be available for meetings during the Athens Exchange Greek Investment Forum in New York on 19-20th June.   DOWNLOAD (PDF)
Monday June 04, 2018


After a recent quiet bout in financial markets, the Eurozone looks as if it is heading towards another period of uncertainty. Over the last few days events in Italy and Spain have rattled stock markets. In Italy, the collapse of the Eurosceptic coalition between the Five Star Movement and Lega party resulted in a populist coalition government led by former IMF Fund official Carlo Cottarelli, which was sworn in on Friday. On the same day in Spain, Mariano Rajoy was ousted as Prime Minister after a vote of no confidence triggered by a corruption scandal. Events in Italy, European Union’s third largest economy, have raised concerns both with investors and in Brussels, whilst the Spanish vote seems to have had less impact. The question remains whether this is a mainly an Italian problem, with Italian voters seeking a tougher approach towards Brussels, or one that risks having negative knock-on effects for Greece. Greek officials are closely watching events in Italy, as Greece aims to return to capital markets once its third and last EU-IMF funded bailout officially expires in August. Any prospect of Athens making a clean break and assuming post bailout normality without assistance has been put into question given the recent Italian, and to a lesser extent, Spanish turmoil. Bank of Greece Governor Yiannis Stournaras has long argued that Greece requires a precautionary credit line “as a protective cushion”, as the country endeavours to stand on its feet after the worst financial crisis in modern times. The Syriza-led government, keen for a clean exit, has dispelled any such notion. We view that the Greek government will stick to its current fall-back view that fiscal over-performance, completion of the 4th review, debt relief, a strong cash buffer and post-programme monitoring should be sufficient to ensure that Greece continues on its path to recovery. This article originially appeared on